Holger Rune and Alexander Zverev completed the list of eight players to feature in the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals following Alex De Minaur’s quarterfinal defeat to Andrey Rublev two weeks ago in Paris.
They have joined the sextet of tennis players to form an outstanding field in Turin, including four previous winners.
The season-ending tournament starts on November 12 and runs through November 19, with up to 1,500 points for the undefeated champion.
Below, we analyze each participant and his chances of defeating defending champion Novak Djokovic, who arrives in Turin as a massive favorite.
Learn More: Sports Betting 101: Betting on Tennis
Novak and Alcaraz Won’t Lock Horns Before the Knockout Round
The ATP Finals is the only tournament of the year with a round-robin structure. Each contestant will play three group-stage matches, and only the top two players in the section will advance to the semifinals.
The group draw is scheduled for Thursday, November 9, at 11 a.m. ET (3:00 pm local time). The players are divided into four pots, as shown in the table below.
| Pot | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 2 | Danill Medvedev | Jannick Sinner |
| 3 | Andrey Rublev | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| 4 | Alexander Zverev | Holger Rune |
The players from the same pot can’t be drawn to the same group, meaning we will not see the clash between the best two players on the planet before the semifinal round. Regardless of the draw, we will get two equally competitive groups. If we don’t count Djokovic, who is in a universe of his own, all seven remaining players are very much capable of beating each other on their days. After all, these are the eight best players on the planet right now, meaning we are in for a spectacular week of tennis in Turin.
Best Pick — Novak Djokovic to win outright (+125) with DraftKings
By winning the title two weeks ago in Bercy, Novak Djokovic gained an unassailable 1,490-point advantage over Carlos Alcaraz at the top of the ATP standings. The only scenario in which Novak could lose the top spot at the end of the year is an impossible one. For Alcaraz to surpass him, the Spaniard needs to win all five matches in Turin, while Djokovic has to lose all three group-stage affairs.
Novak has not lost all three matches at the ATP Finals since debuting at the season-ending tournament in 2007 when he fell to David Ferrer, Rafael Nadal, and Richard Gasquet in Shanghai. The Serb has thus all but locked the No. 1 year-end ranking for a record-extending 8th time.
Although he was seriously tested in three of his inaugural four matches at the last Masters 1000 event of the year, Djokovic lifted his seventh title in Paris with a win over in-form Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov in the final. Novak has felt discomfort with his stomach throughout the tournament and won it, confirming his extraordinary spell of form.
The World No. 1 has lost just one match since mid-May and the defeat to Holger Rune in the Rome quarterfinal. The lone loss has come at the hands of Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final. His impeccable run includes titles at the French Open, Cincinnati, US Open, and Paris.
To sum this section up, we say that a trophy in Turin would leave Djokovic alone at the top of the list of players with the most ATP Finals titles. He currently shares the top with arch-rival Roger Federer, having won the season-ending event six times in his career.
With all due respect to the rest of the field, we don’t see anyone capable of stopping Novak from breaking more records in the last tournament of the year. Although we’ve seen surprising winners in the past (some of them will also be present in Turin), it would be baffling to bet against the Serbian. You can take Djokovic to win the tournament at the +125 odds with DraftKings.
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The Rest of the Field
We would usually name at least one or two legitimate title contenders in pre-tournament previews. Still, it is very hard to consider anyone a serious threat to the current World No. 1 at this moment.
Carlos Alcaraz has been Novak’s major rival this year, and he is the last person to beat the Serbian. However, we are not confident of Carlos’ chances of passing the group stage in Turin, let alone going all the way to win the event. The 20-year-old Spaniard confirmed his horrendous form by losing his first match in Paris two weeks ago in straight sets against Roman Safiullin. Carlitos pulled out of the 2022 ATP Finals through injury, and he will only make his debut at the season-ending tournament this time around. You will find value in betting against Alcaraz in all three group-stage matches.
Daniil Medvedev returns to Turin after losing all three group-phase outings last year. Interestingly, all three losses have come after decisive tie-breaks, meaning these could have easily been three wins for the Russian. The 27-year-old hard-hitter sees this year as the best one of his career. The numbers don’t lie, as Daniil has won five trophies so far in 2023. Nevertheless, his previous title came back in May when he conquered Rome. Medvedev lost his opening match in Paris two weeks ago in a decisive tie-break to the latter finalist, Dimitrov. Considering his experience and quality, we can see the Russian reaching the knockout phase, especially since he has already claimed the ATP Finals title in 2020.
Jannik Sinner will be a very interesting player to watch in Turin. He claimed his fourth title of the year in October, beating Medvedev in the final of the ATP event in Vienna. We’ll back him to pass the group based on his current form.
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Andrey Rublev has consistently produced results in the last several years, but he has regularly lost important matches this year. The talented 26-year-old Russian only has two titles to his name this season. He showed decent form recently but failed to jump above the last hurdles. He lost to Hubert Hurkacz in the Shanghai final, Jannik Sinner in the Vienna semifinal, and Novak Djokovic in the Paris semifinal in his previous three tournaments. Considering that Andrey will play three very difficult matches in the group stage, he is not someone we’d bet on for a deep run in Turin.
Out of all players in the field, the 2019 ATP Finals champion Stefanos Tsitsipas has probably had the most disappointing season. The Greek has only won one ATP tournament in 2023, beating Alex De Minaur in the Los Cabos final in August this year. He has recently suffered some unexpected defeats in the early stages of the tournaments, such as those to Nicolas Jarry in Beijing, Ugo Humbert in Shanghai, and Arthur Fils in Antwerp. Stefanos made a strong run to the semifinal two weeks ago in Paris. He has the talent to beat any player in the world on his day, and he will probably make an upset or two in Turin, but would we consider him a top-three title candidate here? Certainly not.
Holger Rune is another debutant (alongside Alcaraz) at the year-ending tournament. The mere presence in Turin represents a gigantic success for the 20-year-old Dane. His recent form has been anything but impressive, with losses to Richard Gasquet, Marcos Giron, Mackenzie McDonald, Roberto Carballes-Baena, Thiago Monteiro, Grigor Dimitrov, Brandon Nakashima, Miomir Kecmanovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Novak Djokovic since July this year. On a positive note, Holger showed several brilliant displays two weeks ago in Paris, forcing Djokovic into three complicated sets in the quarterfinal. That said, we would not be surprised to see the Dane losing all three matches at Pala Alpitour Stadium.
We will finish with a two-time champion, Alexander Zverev, who has slowly returned to the Top 10 in the ATP rankings after missing most of last season’s action. Unfortunately for his fans, the 26-year-old German is not yet in the best place when it comes to form. An easy R16 defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Bercy is the best proof. We don’t see Sascha getting out of the group phase, either.
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