MicroMillions Week 1 Update: Overlays Provide Good Value for Players

Poker’s most popular and lucrative tournament series, MicroMillions 16, has gotten off to a bumpy start. The first six tournaments failed to generate enough entries to meet their guarantees resulting in the tournaments having overlays. Here is a breakdown of the tournaments that overlayed so far:

MicroMillions Opening Weekend Overlays

There has been a total of $13,603.46 in overlays so far. Overlays represent additional value for players because even though the total entries don’t make up the entire guarantee, PokerStars adds in the extra prize money to get the prize pool to the advertised guarantee. Let’s take a look at what’s going on here and project some good value targets.

MicroMillions Events Missing on Their Targets is Incredibly Rare

As a general rule, MicroMillions events do not miss. I tracked MicroMillions 13 and 14 in 2017 and 2018 and there were only 2-3 misses per series with over 120 events per series.

Six out of six misses on the first day bodes well for players. While it is definitely possible that PokerStars was just having a bad day, it is also possible that they might have overshot demand here. As of this writing, it looks like MicroMillions is back on track with Events 8, 9, and 10 hitting their targets. We will see if the rest of the schedule stabilizes.

For players looking to gain an edge, we have some tips for finding events with potential for overlays.

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Value Tip Number One: Try Out Formats Other Than NLHE

In general, players prefer Progressive Knockouts, vanilla NLHE freezeouts, and then everything else. Spicier formats such as Win the Button, Bubble Rush, and Shootouts tend to suppress guarantees. And these formats have mostly withered away in the main schedule and at higher stakes. However, MicroMillions provides a golden low-stakes opportunity to have some fun and expand your comfort zone.

Keep your eye out for upcoming events with these key words. Remember, Shootouts have no late registration so you can easily track if there will be added overlay value. MicroMillions 16 has 5 upcoming shootouts on November 14, 16, 19, 21 and 23.

In addition, with the first 6+ Hold’em event missing in a great 19:00 ET Sunday Slot that has historically always performed well, it is possible that 6+ Hold’em, along with other variants, such as Fusion and Showtime, will underperform.

Across the globe, 6+ Hold’em looks like it’s popular and here to stay, and MicroMillions 16 can be a great practice ground for you. While you are at it, throw in any of the mixed games you always wanted to try. Most of the misses I’ve seen for MicroMillions have come from these areas.

Value Tip Number Two: Big Tournaments Provide Big Opportunities

Over the course of most two week series, player demand tends to flag after the first week. People get caught up in the first week hype, which grows weaker, until surging back for the final Sunday. The first Sunday has shown us that MicroMillions 16 can have off days. And if an off day coincides with player fatigue, the overlays can pile up in your favor.

Friday, November 15, looks like a good day to target. Friday is generally a weaker performing day on the main schedule and the flagship event at 13:00 ET is a $3.30 Rebuy with $75K Guaranteed. These large rebuys have traditionally done quite well during MicroMillions, making an overlay unlikely, but there are two bonuses to consider. $75K is one of the largest guarantees on the entire schedule. Also, players will be dropping out of the field due to the rebuy format. Plan on bringing enough rebuys to make it to the add-on and you might have half the field eliminated after you add-on.

The Sky is Not Falling but There is Value to be Gained

While PokerStars won’t be happy with the optics of six overlays in six events, it is important to keep in mind that running MicroMillions again is still a huge win for the operator. No other site has the liquidity and reach to assemble so many players and build these types of prize pools.

When MicroMillions tournaments are missing on their guarantees, it actually creates one of those rare win-win situations for both PokerStars and the players that feels good for everyone. Players get added value from the overlays and get to play for large sums of money. And PokerStars is not hurt too much by these compared to more expensive overlays in higher stakes tournaments.

There are a few exceptions to this. A tournament like the $22 MicroMillions Main Event, with $1 Million Guaranteed, while very unlikely to miss, is still a must play due to the value of playing against 50,000+ players for life changing money. And you can hold out hope that it will overlay.

One thing to bear in mind as MicroMillions 16 continues is there is no drawback to just playing the biggest tournaments on the schedule. Because your ROI (Return on Investment) grows as the size of the field increases, and larger field sizes award larger prizes, these tournaments make the most sense even without factoring in overlays. Maybe the real treasure isn’t the overlays. Maybe the real treasure is the great tournaments we play along the way.